BP神经网络在上海住宅市场需求预测中的应用

人工神经网络是近期发展最快的人工智能领域研究成果之一 ,本文在介绍 BP神经网络的有关原理的基础上 ,建立了一个上海住宅市场的 BP神经网络模型 ,并通过该模型对上海住宅市场的需求进行了预测和分析 .分析结果表明人工神经网络方法在住宅市场需求预测中的应用是可行的并且是有效的 .     

公路货运行业政府管制的变迁

本文首先阐述了管制的概念内涵以及进行管制的必要性 ,并对影响管制的主要因素进行分析 .随后运用管制经济学和规范经济学的基本理论 ,考察公路货运业行业管制制度的变迁与管制效果 ,对管制失效的原因加以分析 .最后对加入 WTO后如何对公路运输行业进行管制加以探讨     

创业投资与金融体系关系的实证研究

本文实证研究了创业投资产业与金融体系的内在关系,并对目前我国以银行为中心的金融体系下发展创业投资产业提出了一些建议.     

我国封闭式投资基金业绩评价实证研究

随着我国基金行业超常发展,恰当的分析和评价基金业绩已越来越重要。本文根据CAPM的基本原理,利用国外先进的基金业绩评价方法对我国封闭式基金的综合业绩进行实证研究。研究结果表明:总体来看,基金获得的市场超额收益显著为负。基金经理不具有证券选择能力,但具有一定的市场择时能力,但这两种能力均不显著。同时,我们还发现不同投资风格的基金经理具有不同的证券选择能力和市场择时能力。     

中国股票市场波动特性的实证研究

本文以上证综指和深成分指数的日收益率为研究对象 ,应用 GARCH、TARCH模型理论 ,进一步分析了日收益率波动的条件异方差性、非对称性 ,同时比较了两个股票市场的不同波动特征     

Solitary wave solutions of nonlinear financial markets :data-modeling-concept-practicing

This paper seeks to solve the difficult nonlinear problem in financial markets on the complex system theory and the nonlinear dynamics principle, with the data-model-concept-practice issue-oriented reconstruction of the phase space by the high frequency trade data. In theory, we have achieved the differentiable manifold geometry configuration, discovered the Yang-Mills functional in financial markets, obtained a meaningful conserved quantity through corresponding space-time non-Abel localization gauge symmetry transformation, and derived the financial solitons, which shows that there is a strict symmetry between manifold fiber bundle and guage field in financial markets. In practical applications of financial markets, we have repeatedly carried out experimental tests in a fluctuant evolvement, directly simulating and validating the existence of solitons by researching the price fluctuations (society phenomena) using the same methods and criterion as in natural science and in actual trade to test the stock Guangzhou Proprietary and the futures Fuel Oil in China. The results demonstrate that the financial solitons discovered indicates that there is a kind of new substance and form of energy existing in financial trade markets, which likely indicates a new science paradigm in the economy and society domains beyond physics.      

电力市场中合同电量与竞争电量交易比例的研究

在单边开放的区域电力市场中,合理的合同电量与竞争电量交易比例是保证电力市场有效运行的一个重要环节。竞争电量所占的比例将主要取决于当前发电公司的市场行为。首先使用BP神经网络对电力需求弹性系数进行了预测,然后以长期电力市场均衡为目标函数,考虑贵州电网发电机组的可用容量与负荷预测的误差,以及贵州输电线路的可靠性诸因素,推导出合同电量与竞争电量交易比例,经过与南方区域电力市场目前运营规则规定的交易比例比较,该比例是合理的,可以规避电力市场价格波动等带来的风险。     

On the role of heterogeneous and imperfect information in a laboratory financial market

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of a group of heterogeneously informed investors in an laboratory asset market. Our experimental setting is inspired by Huber et al. (On the benefit of information in markets with heterogeneously informed traders: an experimental study, 2004). However, instead of their system of cumulative and exogenously given information structure, we introduce an information market where the traders can buy an imperfect prediction of the future value of the dividend with a maximum anticipation of four periods. The accuracy of the prediction decreases with the chosen time horizon, whereas its price remains constant. Our results confirm a non-strictly monotonic increasing value of the information.     

Portfolio optimization in stochastic markets

We consider a multiperiod mean-variance model where the model parameters change according to a stochastic market. The mean vector and covariance matrix of the random returns of risky assets all depend on the state of the market during any period where the market process is assumed to follow a Markov chain. Dynamic programming is used to solve an auxiliary problem which, in turn, gives the efficient frontier of the mean-variance formulation. An explicit expression is obtained for the efficient frontier and an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the application of the procedure.